Even if you’re not planning on watching Vice President Kamala Harris’ CNN town hall on Wednesday, pay close attention to the location: Delaware County, Pennsylvania. This suburban battleground could very well be where the next presidential election is won or lost.
Delaware County, along with its three neighboring collar counties—Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery—has become a critical voting bloc in Pennsylvania. A strong performance in these suburban counties is essential for any candidate hoping to win the state in 2024.
Pennsylvania is a state of sharp contrasts, defined by two major urban centers, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and a variety of political landscapes. But these four suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia have emerged as a powerful political force in recent decades. Together, they form an electoral powerhouse with a population of over 2.6 million—larger than both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia combined and more populous than 15 states.
These suburbs are firmly entrenched in East Coast sensibilities, closely aligned with the Acela Corridor’s political and cultural leanings. Among Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, they are some of the most affluent and highly educated, making them crucial to shaping the state’s political future.
In 2020, these counties played a decisive role in flipping Pennsylvania for Joe Biden. While Biden struggled in Philadelphia—falling short of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance—he gained ground in these suburban areas, especially in Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties. Biden’s performance here was impressive enough to offset his losses in more conservative parts of the state, such as western Pennsylvania and the central region, known as the “Republican T.” The suburban vote delivered Biden a margin of 105,000 votes—enough to secure his narrow win in the state, where he led by just 82,000 votes overall.
Just a few decades ago, it would have been hard to imagine these suburbs as a Democratic stronghold. These counties, especially Delaware County, were once solidly Republican, home to powerful GOP machines led by figures like John McClure, known as the “Boy King.” But the political tides began shifting in the 1990s. By 1992, Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery counties voted for Bill Clinton, and they have leaned Democratic ever since. Chester County followed suit in 2008.
For the Republican Party, this shift was nothing short of catastrophic. Between 1952 and 1988, the GOP won Pennsylvania in six of ten presidential elections. Since the suburban counties flipped, Democrats have won seven of the last eight presidential races.
Today, Bucks County remains the only one of the four where Trump has a realistic shot at victory. While it is more politically competitive than its neighboring counties, even a win in Bucks would still require Trump to overcome substantial losses in Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery. In 2020, all three of these counties voted against Trump by larger margins than in 2016 and rejected his endorsed candidates in the 2022 midterms. Montgomery County, the third-most populous in the state and home to Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, stands out as a particular challenge for Republicans. It epitomizes the suburban resistance to Trump’s influence.
The political calculus of Pennsylvania hasn’t changed much since the 2008 election when Rick Davis, campaign manager for John McCain, famously remarked: “If you can figure out what I’m going to lose [Philadelphia] by, you’ll know if I can win Pennsylvania.” While Harris will certainly need a strong showing in Philadelphia, the true bellwether for the state may lie in the margins by which Trump loses in the suburban counties surrounding the city.
For both Democrats and Republicans, the 2024 election will hinge on how these affluent, highly educated suburbs cast their votes. The suburban vote is no longer a secondary concern—it is the battleground.
