As Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau prepares to meet President Joe Biden at the G7 summit in Italy, it’s unlikely that a serious discussion about the potential for a U.S. civil war will emerge. However, Canada’s government is quietly considering that very possibility.
In a spring report titled “Disruptions on the Horizon”, a little-known government think tank, Policy Horizons Canada, raised the alarming question of American civil unrest. While the report briefly suggested that “U.S. ideological divisions, democratic erosion, and domestic unrest escalate, plunging the country into civil war,” it’s a scenario that’s unsettling for a neighbor to contemplate. In just 15 words, Canada’s experts pondered the very real risk of a violent breakdown south of its border.
This report differs from the more sensationalistic predictions made by political consultants, academics, and activists in the United States since the 2016 election. While such figures often engage in speculative and dramatic scenarios to stress-test democracy, Canada’s take seems less like partisan fear-mongering and more like sober preparation. The notion that Canada’s policymakers are seriously considering this risk speaks to their deep concern about the U.S.’s political trajectory.
The “Disruptions on the Horizon” report, produced by Policy Horizons, surveyed experts and officials on potential disruptions that could significantly impact Canada. Among various catastrophic scenarios—including biological weapon proliferation, antibiotic-resistant pathogens, and even the outbreak of World War III—American civil war ranked as a “low likelihood” but high-impact event.
John McArthur, a Brookings Institution scholar and steering committee member of Policy Horizons, believes this hypothetical civil war scenario reveals more about Canadian anxiety regarding U.S. politics than a literal expectation of violence akin to the Civil War of 1861. Reflecting on the impact of Donald Trump’s protectionist policies, McArthur noted how the U.S. retreat from global engagement left Canada grappling with unforeseen challenges. The deepening ideological and political divisions within the U.S. only added to the concern that Canada’s most important ally might unravel in ways that could disrupt decades of established economic and diplomatic relations.
The potential fallout for Canada is significant: Any political or economic instability in the U.S. could create a ripple effect northward, deeply affecting Canada’s political climate and security. As McArthur put it, “Any disruption to your closest sovereign relationship in the world… is a deep worry to any Canadian outlook.”
Catherine Beaudry, a professor at Polytechnique Montréal, was more skeptical of the civil war scenario but praised the report for highlighting interconnected risks. While acknowledging that scenarios like cyberattacks on critical infrastructure are more within Canada’s control, Beaudry pointed out that speculating on a U.S. civil war doesn’t offer much in terms of actionable steps for Canada. The most useful takeaway, she said, is to consider how these global disruptions interact, allowing Canadian leaders to better prepare for crises that could overlap and magnify each other.
Despite the sober tone of the “Disruptions” report, there’s still a large degree of uncertainty about the practicality of preparing for an American civil war. The U.S. military is far more sophisticated and professionalized than it was during the Civil War, making a large-scale physical secession unlikely. Still, the political fragmentation, growing ideological divides, and social unrest in the U.S. are factors that might lead to a form of civil unrest, even if it doesn’t look like the history books’ version.
It’s a reminder of how closely tied Canada’s fate is to its neighbor’s, and how much Washington’s turmoil could reverberate across the border. While Trudeau is unlikely to bring up the prospect of a civil war in casual conversation with Biden, Canada is quietly preparing for the unforeseen, hoping it never comes to pass
