Washington DC/New Delhi – A familiar script is playing out once again in global geopolitics: oil, diplomacy, and the shadow of war. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, now a central figure in the 2025 Republican campaign, made headlines on Saturday by declaring that India had “reportedly” halted oil imports from Russia. Citing unverified reports, Trump praised the move, calling it a “good step” if true. But back in New Delhi, Indian officials offered a muted counter-narrative: no such decision has been made—at least not officially.
Trump’s remarks came in the wake of a new wave of U.S. trade penalties directed at India, including a 25% hike on imports and the threat of 100% tariffs on countries continuing to purchase Russian oil. The aggressive posture marks a continuation of Washington’s attempts to isolate Moscow economically following its ongoing war in Ukraine. However, this time, the target is India—a longstanding U.S. partner but one that has resisted falling fully in line with Western expectations.
India’s Oil Equation: Not Just About Politics
The suggestion that India may have paused Russian oil imports isn’t entirely unfounded. According to a Reuters report, state-run Indian refiners—including Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, and Mangalore Refinery—have not placed new orders for Russian crude in the past week. This coincides with diminishing discounts from Moscow and a resurgence in Middle Eastern and West African supplies.
But does this signify a shift in New Delhi’s policy or simply market pragmatism?
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a source in India’s Ministry of External Affairs clarified, “India’s energy purchases are driven by national interests and market forces. We do not have any reports of Indian oil firms halting Russian imports.” MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal reiterated a similar line during the ministry’s weekly briefing, avoiding any confirmation of a policy pivot.
In essence, the Indian government appears to be walking a diplomatic tightrope—balancing geopolitical pressure from the West while preserving its sovereign decision-making in energy sourcing.
Trump’s Timing and Tariffs
Trump’s comments come at a strategic moment. As part of his broader campaign rhetoric, he has been amplifying criticisms of U.S. allies that fail to align with Washington’s sanctions regime. Earlier, he and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had lashed out at India for continuing to buy discounted Russian oil, effectively undermining the West’s effort to financially isolate the Kremlin.
Now, Trump is turning up the heat—threatening 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal. While largely dismissed by some in the diplomatic community as campaign posturing, the threat is not entirely without precedent. Under his previous administration, Trump used tariff threats as a core tool of foreign policy.
State vs Private: The Indian Refining Divide
Notably, the Reuters report suggests that while state refiners have paused Russian oil purchases, India’s largest private importers—Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy—remain active buyers. This duality is critical: while state-run entities control over 60% of India’s refining capacity, the private sector operates with more flexibility, often bypassing the diplomatic scrutiny faced by government-backed firms.
Nayara, partly owned by Russian oil major Rosneft, has particularly strong links to Russian supply chains. For such entities, shifting away from Russian crude could prove commercially difficult and politically sensitive.
Geopolitical Chessboard: What Lies Ahead?
India’s position in the global oil market is more than transactional—it’s strategic. As the world’s third-largest oil importer, India’s choices ripple through global energy markets. The post-Ukraine war era has amplified the complexity of those choices. On one hand, energy security and affordability remain top domestic priorities. On the other, a strengthening India-U.S. partnership, framed as a counter to China’s rise, complicates the optics of continued engagement with Moscow.
The question now is whether recent developments mark a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a long-term recalibration.
India, it seems, is once again caught in a familiar dilemma—how to assert strategic autonomy while navigating a world increasingly divided into ideological blocs.
For now, oil remains more than just a commodity; it is a test of sovereignty, a lever of diplomacy, and, increasingly, a measure of global influence.
