In the summer of 2023, a group of American and British political strategists gathered in London’s Marylebone neighborhood. The conversation, which began with French cuisine, soon turned to a topic of far greater weight: political messaging. Among the participants were key members of the British Labour Party and two prominent American centrists, Matt Bennett and Josh Freed, both leaders of the think tank Third Way.

The Labour Party was riding high in the polls, buoyed by the faltering Conservative Party. But doubts lingered. Despite favourable projections, the party had suffered a setback in a by-election for Boris Johnson’s former seat, a loss attributed to backlash against local policies on car use. Faced with growing uncertainty, Labour strategists questioned whether it was time to present a more precise governing agenda to avoid being painted with the brush of radicalism.

Bennett and Freed had one simple piece of advice: Don’t do it.

They pointed to the failed approach of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, which presented voters with an overwhelming array of policy ideas—290, to be exact—while Donald Trump boiled his agenda down to a few key promises. The conclusion was clear: Labour should take a leaf out of Joe Biden’s 2020 playbook and keep its message simple and safe.

Nine months later, the Labour Party appears poised for a decisive victory in the upcoming snap election. Labour has adopted an aspirational agenda based on economic opportunity, national renewal, and disillusionment with the Tories. Polls suggest the main question is not whether Labour will win, but by how much. The public seems ready to embrace Labour’s vision.

Yet, while Bidenism may work in the short term, especially in the context of the U.K.’s political landscape, Labour should exercise caution in emulating this approach in the long run.

Biden’s political method—rooted in safety and broad generalities—has failed to ignite the kind of robust coalition he promised when he campaigned for the presidency. Though Biden successfully built a diverse coalition of voters in 2020, his presidency has seen little progress in translating that electoral victory into tangible results that resonate with everyday Americans. While Biden has achieved significant legislative victories, few voters credit him for them. His failure to inspire confidence and address pressing concerns, particularly economic hardship, has left many feeling disconnected from his leadership.

For the Labour Party, the challenges Biden faces are instructive. The current state of the U.K. is far worse than the situation Biden inherited. With depleted government finances, a crumbling health care system, and deteriorating infrastructure, the Labour Party will face a far more daunting task than Biden did when he took office. Rather than debating trillion-dollar economic plans, the next U.K. government will struggle with the more immediate question of how to pay for any reforms at all.

This contrast makes Biden’s political predicament particularly striking. He faces a reelection campaign against a deeply unpopular rival in Donald Trump, and while his approach worked in 2020, it has not translated into meaningful political engagement during his presidency. In short, while Biden may be able to squeak through with a low-risk, low-energy campaign once again, it is hard to view his strategy as a long-term solution for any nation seeking to move beyond the limitations of tired political formulas.

For Labour, the lessons are clear. While Bidenism may appear successful in the short term—offering a safe, centrist alternative to a divisive opponent—this approach has failed to foster the kind of energized political movement that is necessary to sustain a lasting mandate. As Labour looks forward to what seems to be a likely victory, they should remain wary of overreliance on an American playbook that is increasingly showing its age.

At the dinner in London, Bennett and Freed also pointed to another American figure as a model for Labour’s future: Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a moderate Democrat from Virginia. Spanberger’s clear and effective communication style, which balances rhetorical appeal with substance, stands in stark contrast to the muddled political messaging that has characterized Biden’s presidency. Spanberger has been a critic of Biden’s overly ambitious policy goals, arguing that the president has failed to connect with voters on the issues that matter most.

As Labour prepares for victory, the question remains: Will they be better prepared than Biden to address the difficult questions that come with power? As history shows, it is not enough to win an election on vague promises. The real challenge begins the day after the victory is claimed. For Labour, a clear vision and the ability to deliver on it will be the true test.

While the path to victory may seem clear for Labour now, their ability to lead effectively after that victory will depend on their willingness to learn from the mistakes of those who have come before them, especially Biden. The future of British politics may be shaped not by the rhetoric of a bygone era but by a new kind of leadership—one that can translate electoral success into genuine progress for the people.