In the wake of President Joe Biden’s Justice Department decisions, Donald Trump is returning to the White House, while Biden’s son Hunter faces the real prospect of prison. This extraordinary moment has set the stage for an unprecedented personal and political dilemma.

Hunter Biden is scheduled for sentencing in two criminal cases within weeks. On December 12, he will appear in federal court in Delaware, convicted of purchasing a firearm in 2018 while battling addiction. Days later, he will stand before a Los Angeles federal judge for sentencing on tax fraud charges, to which he pleaded guilty in September.

The speculation swirling in Washington for months—whether Joe Biden will pardon his son—has now reached a fever pitch. The question touches on legal, political, and personal complexities that defy easy resolution. Should he take this extraordinary step?

While pardoning Hunter would erase his convictions, commuting his sentence is a middle ground that spares him imprisonment without absolving him of guilt. A commutation would show mercy, protecting the Biden family from further anguish while upholding a measure of justice.

This would mark a reversal for Joe Biden, who publicly declared during his re-election campaign that he would neither pardon nor commute any sentence for his son. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically, with Trump’s return to power and Biden’s own political legacy in flux.

The cases against Hunter Biden are, in many respects, unusual. Legal experts argue that charges like those in his gun case are rarely prosecuted. Similarly, the tax charges—stemming from Hunter’s failure to pay $1.4 million—are often resolved without criminal proceedings. Critics claim these cases were driven by Republican pressure on Biden’s Justice Department, which appointed David Weiss, a Trump-era U.S. attorney, as special counsel to prosecute the matter.

Hunter initially struck a plea deal involving misdemeanor tax charges and a diversion program for the gun case, but this was derailed after Congressional Republicans intervened and a Trump-appointed judge rejected the agreement. Weiss then pursued more aggressive charges.

The sentencing guidelines suggest Hunter Biden could face over a year in prison for the gun charge and two to three years for the tax case. These recommendations are not binding, and judges have latitude to impose more lenient penalties, including probation. However, the stakes are higher in the Los Angeles tax case, where imprisonment seems more likely.

If Hunter Biden faces a prison term, President Biden would be within his rights to commute the sentence. Historically, there is little precedent for such a move, but this entire case is without precedent. The charges were politically charged from the start, fueled by partisan attacks and an aggressive pursuit by Weiss.

Republicans, led by Trump, are sure to react with outrage to any intervention by Biden. However, their criticisms may ring hollow, given Trump’s notorious abuse of the pardon power. During his presidency, Trump granted clemency to allies like Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, and Steve Bannon, as well as Republican fundraisers, former members of Congress, and even his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s father.

By comparison, a commutation for Hunter Biden would appear restrained.

The personal dimension of this decision looms largest. The Biden family has endured immense challenges—grief, addiction, and loss. For a president at the end of his political career, the prospect of his son serving a prison sentence could be unbearable.

Joe Biden’s political legacy, already marred by Trump’s resurgence, may not be his foremost concern. His ousting as the Democratic Party’s 2024 nominee and the subsequent recriminations have left little incentive to prioritize party optics over personal convictions.

However, the risk remains that a commutation could provoke the incoming Trump administration to pursue additional charges against Hunter. Trump has long railed against the “Biden crime family,” and issuing a blanket pardon to shield Hunter from all potential legal jeopardy would undoubtedly ignite a political firestorm.

For Joe Biden, this decision is deeply personal, cutting to the core of his identity as a father and a public servant. The weight of his family’s struggles and the unique pressures of his presidency intersect in this moment.

Whatever Biden decides will reverberate far beyond his presidency, shaping public perceptions of justice, mercy, and the balance between personal loyalty and public accountability. For a father facing one of the most consequential choices of his life, the stakes could not be higher.