
In a stunning display of duplicity, President Donald Trump has made it clear that he intends to dismantle the Iran nuclear deal by October, regardless of the facts. The plan is brazen and premeditated: claim Tehran is violating the agreement, and pave the way for military confrontation. Trump’s advisors have even outlined the strategy in plain terms, exposing a rarely seen transparency in sabotaging an arms control agreement to justify war.
The unraveling of Trump’s intentions began two weeks ago when he reluctantly certified Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal, a requirement under U.S. law. Both U.S. intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran was adhering to the agreement. However, Trump reportedly erupted in anger during an Oval Office meeting, berating his national security team for not finding a way to claim Iran was cheating.
To appease the president, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster reportedly promised to redouble efforts to provide Trump with an opportunity to derail the deal by October.
Initially, many analysts dismissed Trump’s harsh rhetoric on Iran as empty threats. While he repeatedly condemned Iran as the root of Middle Eastern instability and labeled it the “greatest state sponsor of terror,” his actions told a different story. Trump continued to waive sanctions and certify Iran’s compliance with the deal, suggesting his bark was worse than his bite.
However, recent leaks reveal a shift from rhetoric to strategy. Trump’s advisors proposed a “radical enforcement” tactic: demand intrusive inspections of Iranian military sites under the deal’s spot-inspections mechanism. This mechanism is designed for cases where evidence suggests illicit nuclear activities, not for fishing expeditions. When Iran inevitably refuses, Trump can accuse Tehran of noncompliance, shift blame, and dismantle the agreement.
The plan mirrors the lead-up to the Iraq War, where intelligence was manipulated to justify military action. Trump himself admitted to The Wall Street Journal that he wanted to declare Iran noncompliant from the beginning. “If it was up to me, I would have had them noncompliant 180 days ago,” he said. Confident in the strategy, he added, “I think they’ll be noncompliant [in October].”
This “radical enforcement” strategy, lauded by Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Corker as a means to break the deal while blaming Iran, risks isolating the U.S. from its allies. Corker bluntly outlined the plan: “You want the breakup of this deal to be about Iran. You don’t want it to be about the U.S., because we want our allies with us.”
Trump’s confidence in his strategy may be misplaced. For one, abusing the inspection mechanism undermines the integrity of the nuclear deal, which relies on robust and transparent inspections. If the U.S. uses these inspections as a pretext for conflict, it could embolden hardliners in Iran who favor pursuing covert nuclear activities. Furthermore, such actions could alienate key allies in Europe who are deeply committed to non-proliferation and view the deal as critical to global security.
Trump’s duplicity is also evident to the American public. The playbook of fabricating a justification for war is all too familiar, particularly after the disastrous Iraq War. Anti-war sentiments remain strong across the political spectrum, and many Americans — including Trump’s own supporters — are wary of being deceived again.
Trump’s determination to dismantle the Iran nuclear deal is a reckless gamble that risks global security, alienates allies, and undermines the credibility of U.S. diplomacy. By exposing his intentions so openly, he has revealed his willingness to sacrifice facts and diplomacy for conflict. The American public, having lived through the devastating consequences of the Iraq War, may not be so quick to follow him down this dangerous path.
The stakes are high. If Trump’s strategy succeeds, it could lead to another catastrophic conflict in the Middle East, further destabilizing the region and eroding trust in international agreements. For now, the world watches as the president gambles with peace for the sake of politics.