As Russia’s President Vladimir Putin declared at his end-of-year news conference in December, the situation on the frontlines of the Ukraine war is shifting rapidly. “There is movement along the entire front line. Every day,” Putin said, describing the ongoing advances of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. As the war moves into its third year, Russia is gaining ground more quickly than at any time since its full-scale invasion began in February 2022, despite Ukraine’s notable resistance.
The toll on both sides has been staggering, with estimates of over a million people killed or wounded, and civilians in the path of the conflict forced to flee their homes. Russia’s forces are steadily making progress across the Donbas region, taking over towns and villages, and pushing further west.
While the situation in Ukraine looks increasingly grim, political shifts in the United States may influence the direction of the war. Incoming President Donald Trump has expressed impatience with the ongoing conflict, which he describes as “crazy” and costly. He has promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, though many view this as a grandiose claim. Trump’s stance remains unclear, with mixed messages about how he intends to address the war and whether Ukraine should expect continued U.S. aid.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes that Trump’s administration will inherit a war in a “negative trajectory” and lacks a clear strategy for success. Trump has criticized the Biden administration’s decisions, such as allowing Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia, arguing that it only escalates the conflict.
For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains focused on positioning Ukraine as a partner in negotiations, even as Russia continues its relentless advance. Zelensky has shown a willingness to engage with Trump, having already congratulated him on his election victory and worked with French President Emmanuel Macron to arrange a meeting in Paris. According to Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s former foreign minister, this is part of a “smart strategy exercise” by Zelensky to ensure Ukraine’s interests are considered in any potential peace talks.
However, Ukrainian officials like Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Zelensky, have made it clear that negotiations are premature while Russia has not yet paid a high enough price for its aggression. Despite pressure from various international quarters, Ukraine insists that it will not entertain talks until Russia is held accountable for its actions.
As 2025 approaches, the prospect of a resolution to this devastating conflict remains uncertain. While the dynamics of U.S. leadership and internal Ukrainian strategies may influence the course of events, many experts believe that any potential peace talks hinge on a significant shift in the war’s trajectory and the costs borne by both sides. The future of Ukraine and the region hangs in the balance as the war enters its next phase.
