Amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel, the Israeli leadership has sounded alarms about the rapidly expanding Iranian military presence in Syria, which is seen as an existential threat to Israel’s security. With Syria embroiled in a brutal civil war since 2011, facing a multitude of Islamist insurgent groups, the Syrian government has increasingly turned to foreign allies such as North Korea, Russia, and Iran for military support. While North Korean and Russian forces have focused on achieving their own objectives in the region, Iran has used the conflict as an opportunity to strengthen its foothold in Syria, particularly near Israel’s border. This strategy is aimed at positioning its forces, including Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah, to directly challenge Israel should war break out.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed grave concern about this growing threat. He warned that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has been funneling advanced weaponry into Syria, including weaponized UAVs, ground-to-ground missiles, and anti-aircraft systems, all designed to target Israeli defense capabilities. Netanyahu further indicated that Iran is planning to introduce even more sophisticated weapons, with particular focus on those that could challenge Israel’s air superiority. These fears were amplified after an advanced Iranian stealth drone, based on the U.S. RQ-170, entered Israeli airspace from Syria in 2018, evading Israel’s ground-based missile defenses. While the drone was a reconnaissance model, reports suggest that Iran has deployed other advanced UAVs capable of striking targets in Israel with high precision. The presence of these UAVs, combined with other Iranian assets, has transformed Syria into a potential launchpad for future hostilities.
In response to this growing threat, Israel has carried out numerous airstrikes in Syria, targeting Iranian military commanders and weapon depots. However, Iran has exercised caution, avoiding direct escalation. For Tehran, time is a strategic advantage. As Syrian forces edge closer to victory over remaining militant groups, Iran’s position in Syria becomes more entrenched, creating an increasingly formidable threat along Israel’s northern border. Meanwhile, Syria’s air defense systems—bolstered by North Korean upgrades and Russian-supplied S-300 missile defense systems—are making Israeli airstrikes more difficult and costly. As a result, Israeli jets have been forced to launch missiles from a greater distance to avoid Syrian air defenses.
Netanyahu has emphasized the importance of preemptive action, stating that Israel is determined to prevent Iran from building up its military presence in Syria further, even if it means entering into direct conflict. He warned that countries failing to act against growing threats often pay a much higher price in the future. His remarks underscore the urgency felt in Tel Aviv to counter the rising danger from Iran and its allies.
The situation is set to grow more complex as Iran’s military capabilities continue to expand. A key aspect of this is the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, which has been a point of contention for Israel. The deal allows Iran to import advanced weaponry starting in 2020 without the approval of the United Nations. This provision has raised concerns in Israel, particularly regarding the potential for Iran to modernize its air force. Iran is already reportedly interested in acquiring advanced Russian fighter jets like the Su-30 and Su-35, both of which would significantly improve its aerial capabilities and pose a direct challenge to Israel’s dominance in the skies. These aircraft would not only enhance Iran’s ability to strike Israeli targets from Syria but also provide critical air support for Iranian ground forces operating in the region. The acquisition of the Su-57, a stealth fighter similar to the U.S. F-22, is also a possibility, which would further bolster Iran’s airpower.
Israel’s military faces an increasingly difficult task as time progresses. The longer Israel delays confronting the growing Iranian threat, the more entrenched and powerful its adversaries will become. Israel remains particularly wary of Iran, having suffered its only military defeat in history at the hands of Hezbollah in 2006. Today, Iran and its allies command far more potent forces than Hezbollah could muster in the past, raising concerns in Tel Aviv about the long-term impact of the evolving situation. With time on Iran’s side, Israel understands that inaction could result in a much more dangerous conflict down the line. This reality explains Israel’s increasing military activity in Syria, including missile strikes aimed at disrupting Iranian deployments near its borders. As the threat from Iran grows, Israel faces a critical decision: act now or risk facing an even stronger adversary in the future.
