India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed neighbors with a history of volatile relations, continue to walk a fine line between deterrence and disaster. While full-scale nuclear war remains unlikely, even small miscalculations can ignite catastrophic outcomes.
Rising Tensions Amid Missile Developments
India recently conducted its second successful test of the Agni-5 intercontinental ballistic missile, a nuclear-capable system with a range exceeding 5,000 kilometers. This technological advancement places India alongside global powers like the U.S., Russia, and China in terms of strategic missile capabilities.
The test, launched from Wheeler Island, reinforces India’s deterrent posture, especially amid its complex relationship with Pakistan—a country that also continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal.
A History of Nuclear Brinkmanship
Despite several military standoffs, the region has so far avoided nuclear escalation. However, historical flashpoints—like the 1999 Kargil conflict and the 2019 Balakot airstrikes—reveal just how close the subcontinent has come.
In 2019, then-U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed he was abruptly contacted by an Indian official amid fears of a Pakistani nuclear launch. Though India denied any such imminent threat, the narrative highlights how misunderstandings can quickly amplify.
Doctrines and Ambiguities
India maintains a “no first use” nuclear doctrine, though recent statements from political leaders have cast uncertainty on its permanence. Conversely, Pakistan has never officially declared a nuclear doctrine, but former officials have pointed to red lines that could trigger deployment: territorial loss, major military damage, economic blockade, or political destabilization.
Pakistan’s Shaheen-II missile, capable of delivering nuclear warheads deep into Indian territory, remains a crucial part of its deterrent. Meanwhile, India is believed to have a technological edge in its naval nuclear triad.
Accidents and Human Error
In 2022, India mistakenly launched a cruise missile into Pakistani airspace, escalating fears of misjudged intent. While no retaliation occurred, the incident underlined how accidents, hacking, or miscommunications could spark unintended escalation.
Professor Alan Robock, who co-authored a 2019 study on nuclear scenarios in South Asia, warned that even minor human or technical errors can lead to disaster. “A small mistake in this region is enough to trigger global consequences,” he said.
The Deterrent Balance
Despite sharp rhetoric and near-misses, most analysts believe both sides are reluctant to cross the nuclear threshold. India and Pakistan are estimated to hold about 170 nuclear warheads each, with growing investments in advanced delivery systems and enriched fissile materials.
Strategic experts like Sumit Ganguly believe both countries want to avoid the stigma and consequences of being first to use nuclear weapons in the post-Hiroshima world. Still, the “use it or lose it” doctrine poses real dangers if battlefield positions are threatened.
The Risk Remains Low, But Not Zero
While the possibility of nuclear war between India and Pakistan is considered relatively low by many experts, it remains an ever-present shadow. The combination of advanced weaponry, ambiguous doctrines, and political unpredictability means that even a small spark could lead to an uncontrollable blaze.
As global powers urge restraint, South Asia’s stability continues to depend on communication, diplomacy, and a shared understanding that in nuclear warfare, there are no winners—only survivors.
