The Ohio Senate GOP primary presents a crucial crossroads for the Republican Party, where the old guard is fighting one last battle to secure a nominee who can effectively challenge incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in November. The stakes are high, not only because of the race’s impact on the Senate but also because it may signal whether the pre-Trump GOP can still survive in a party that has been largely reshaped by Donald Trump’s influence.
Matt Dolan, the state senator with familial ties to the Cleveland Guardians, is emerging as the potential standard-bearer for the Republican establishment. His background, name recognition from a previous Senate bid, and personal wealth have enabled him to outspend his rivals and maintain a strong presence in the race. With Trump’s dominance over the GOP firmly in place, Dolan’s campaign represents a final attempt by the party’s traditional wing to assert itself and produce a candidate who is both electable and moderate enough to garner broader support.
But despite these favorable conditions, Dolan’s victory is far from assured. The race remains close, with his main rival being Bernie Moreno, a Cleveland-area car dealer backed by Trump and local MAGA supporters. A third candidate, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, has also entered the race, further splitting the vote and leaving Dolan in a precarious position. In a race with so much riding on it, Dolan still faces an uphill battle to win over a party that has increasingly embraced Trump’s populist, America First message.
The contest for Ohio’s GOP nomination is not only a test of political strength but also a reflection of the ongoing tensions within the party. While Dolan has received a significant boost in the final days of the race through an endorsement from Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, the contest remains tight. DeWine, a longtime moderate Republican, sees Dolan as the only candidate who can effectively take on Brown and reverse the isolationist tendencies that have marked the party’s recent shift. He’s particularly concerned about the GOP’s growing reluctance to engage internationally, an issue Dolan has taken a firm stance on, advocating for a more active U.S. role in global affairs.
The possibility of Dolan winning the nomination is not just about defeating Brown—it’s about preventing the GOP from slipping further into the realm of Trumpism, which has had a lasting effect on the party’s direction. Dolan represents an alternative vision for Ohio’s GOP: one that seeks to balance conservatism with pragmatism, and one that could restore the state’s Republican politics to its historic roots of internationalism and moderation.
However, there are many forces working against him. Beyond Moreno’s Trump-backed campaign, Dolan faces a hostile political landscape where the old guard’s influence is waning. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other traditional Republican stalwarts have backed Dolan’s candidacy, but their endorsements often have the opposite effect in today’s GOP, with voters skeptical of establishment figures. The involvement of figures like J.D. Vance and Jim Jordan—prominent Trump loyalists—also complicates Dolan’s path.
This race is more than just about securing a Senate seat; it’s a referendum on the future of the Republican Party in Ohio. Dolan has argued that his candidacy is the key to winning back Ohio’s metropolitan areas, particularly Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati, where voters will be essential for any GOP nominee to defeat Brown. Yet, despite these potential advantages, Dolan faces an uphill battle. As DeWine put it, if the party cannot win under these favorable circumstances, it will have to acknowledge that the Ohio GOP has effectively become an extension of Trump’s political empire.
At the heart of this contest is the question of whether Ohio Republicans can break free from Trump’s grip. For the state GOP, this race is as much about ideological identity as it is about electability. As the final votes are cast, Ohio’s future direction may depend on whether the old guard can make one last stand in a party increasingly dominated by Trump and his supporters.
