In the unpredictable landscape of the 2024 presidential race, one notion persists in Republican circles: Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee. This belief, touted by party leaders and echoed in Trump rallies, suggests an inevitability that Biden will be replaced—either due to a health crisis or a strategic Democratic maneuver.

Former President Donald Trump has voiced doubts about Biden “making it,” while Senator Ted Cruz speculated last year about an unconventional Democratic candidate swap involving Michelle Obama. Such theories have gained traction not only among Republican leaders but also within the broader conservative base.

Yet, the idea of replacing Biden is more fantasy than feasible strategy. Here’s why.

The Health Hypothesis

One version of this theory hinges on Biden, now 81, experiencing a health event that removes him from contention. While it’s true that advanced age carries risks, such speculation is both premature and uncertain. Health-related exits are unpredictable and cannot be orchestrated or relied upon as part of a political strategy.

The Strategic Swap

The second, more elaborate version involves Democrats scheming to sideline Biden and unveil a new candidate. Proponents of this theory believe Biden’s recent gaffes—like confusing current leaders with figures from the 1980s—fuel doubts about his mental fitness. But even if Democrats privately question Biden’s viability, orchestrating his removal would be fraught with challenges.

The Incumbency Dilemma

Convincing an incumbent president to step aside is no easy task. Biden, who spent decades pursuing the presidency and weathered setbacks to achieve it, is unlikely to relinquish the office voluntarily. Even if party leaders confronted him, urging him to step down for the good of the party, there’s no mechanism to force his hand. A public declaration of their doubts would only weaken Biden heading into an already contentious election.

For Biden not to run, he would need to make that decision himself—and he’d have needed to do so last year to give potential successors enough time to organize campaigns. At this point, the primary calendar makes such a shift nearly impossible without creating chaos.

The Question of Alternatives

Assuming Democrats could somehow maneuver Biden off the ballot, the question remains: Who would replace him? Vice President Kamala Harris, plagued by low approval ratings, doesn’t inspire confidence as the obvious successor. Other figures like California Governor Gavin Newsom or former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg lack proven national appeal.

While Michelle Obama is popular among Democrats and a compelling public figure, she has repeatedly expressed no interest in running for office. Even if she were persuaded, her lack of campaign experience could prove a liability. An open convention, with multiple contenders vying for the nomination, would risk fracturing the party and creating a divisive spectacle.

Biden Is the Plan

Despite his vulnerabilities, Biden remains the Democratic nominee for a simple reason: the alternatives are no better. Republicans misinterpret Democratic cohesion, attributing to it a level of strategic brilliance that doesn’t align with reality. Democrats, like Republicans, are often at the mercy of events and political dynamics beyond their control.

In fact, Democrats’ decision to stick with Biden isn’t entirely irrational. The incumbent president presides over a growing economy and can run on a record of legislative achievements. Meanwhile, Trump’s legal troubles provide a stark contrast that Democrats hope will motivate their base.

The Appeal of Conspiracy

For Republicans, the idea that Democrats are plotting a Biden swap is psychologically appealing. It reinforces the belief that Democrats are cunning string-pullers, always a step ahead. But this overlooks the simpler truth: the Democratic strategy is to move forward with Biden, flaws and all.

Conclusion

While the fantasy of a Biden replacement intrigues Republican strategists and pundits, it’s unlikely to materialize. Democrats aren’t hatching a secret plan to parachute in a new candidate. They’re forging ahead with Biden, banking on his incumbency, legislative wins, and Trump’s vulnerabilities to carry them to victory.

For all its intrigue, the “Biden replacement” theory is just that—a theory. In reality, the Democratic Party, like the president himself, is stumbling toward 2024 with the candidate they have, not the one Republicans think they should.