With global markets rattled and GOP lawmakers whispering behind closed doors, the House Speaker may hold the key to averting a full-blown trade crisis—if he dares to use it.
As former President Donald Trump barrels forward with a sweeping, unpredictable revival of punitive tariffs, threatening to upend the global trade order, one man in Washington quietly holds the power to bring it all to a screeching halt: House Speaker Mike Johnson.
But for now, Johnson would prefer to stay out of the spotlight.
While Trump leans hard into populist trade rhetoric, vowing to slap foreign goods with crushing levies, the markets have responded with increasing panic. And even some of Trump’s most loyal Republican allies—Sens. Rand Paul and Chuck Grassley among them—are starting to sweat. On Capitol Hill, the disquiet is palpable, though still mostly contained to whispered frustrations and off-the-record admissions.
An Economic Crisis with a Congressional Escape Hatch
In the House, Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican from Nebraska, has introduced legislation aimed at reining in Trump’s unilateral tariff powers—an effort that hasn’t yet won public support from many GOP colleagues but has struck a nerve among those privately fearing political and economic blowback.
In the Senate, a bipartisan bill already exists, and momentum is building. The wildcard? Whether Speaker Johnson will give such legislation a path forward in the House.
If he did, observers say, a critical mass could quickly emerge in both chambers to pass it—perhaps even with veto-proof majorities. Trump has already vowed to veto any bill that challenges his tariff authority, but the numbers could override him.
Yet the cost for Johnson could be his job.
After all, Johnson’s hold on the Speakership is tenuous. He assumed the gavel only with Trump’s blessing—and that blessing could just as quickly be revoked.
The High Cost of Loyalty
Despite Johnson’s measured tone and efforts to protect his caucus from political fallout, the reality is this: Trump’s trade policy is deeply unpopular in the financial world and increasingly shaky in red-state America.
Agriculture-heavy districts that rely on exports—tractors, soybeans, medical devices, and more—are likely to feel the pain first. Already, investors are bracing for turbulence, and Goldman Sachs recently raised the odds of a recession to 45%.
At the same time, prices at the checkout line have yet to spike, but warnings from K Street lobbyists are flooding congressional inboxes. They paint a grim picture: higher costs for everything from seed oil to auto parts, aircraft to farm equipment.
And the message is clear—if lawmakers don’t act soon, the economic damage will only get worse.
Trump’s Tariff Crusade, Unfiltered
Trump, as ever, remains undeterred.
“Tariffs will make this country very rich,” he declared from the Oval Office on Monday, during a surreal moment in which Israel’s Prime Minister sat silently as Trump riffed on trade, market fears, and America’s “stupid cowards” on Wall Street.
When asked about a recent European Union offer to eliminate some tariffs in hopes of easing tensions, Trump scoffed. “The E.U. has been very tough over the years,” he said, dismissing the gesture as insufficient.
His team has floated penalty rates on Chinese imports reaching up to 130%, sending a chill through trading partners and economic analysts alike. Some within Trump’s inner circle say this is all part of a larger negotiation strategy. Others claim it’s the new status quo.
A House Divided—and Paralyzed
For now, Johnson is playing it safe, sticking with Trump and avoiding controversy. But his colleagues are watching the markets tank and constituents panic about retirement funds and small business futures. Inaction, they know, comes with its own risk.
“This is an entirely avoidable crisis,” said one senior Republican aide. “We’re just choosing to watch it happen.”
That sense of resignation extends through many corners of Capitol Hill. A top staffer in GOP leadership offered this take in a text message on Monday:
“Everything is garbage. That much was true last week. It is true this week. It will be true next week. Everyone needs to calm down… STFU.”
It’s gallows humor for a party caught between Trump’s populist pull and the practical needs of governance. That bifurcated posture—equal parts panic and paralysis—is defining the moment in Republican politics.
Will Johnson Blink?
As pressure builds, Johnson stands at a crossroads. Does he remain the quiet caretaker of Trump’s trade crusade? Or does he break ranks, assert congressional authority, and risk his role as Speaker?
Either choice is fraught. But as the economic stakes rise, so does the chance that Republican lawmakers may find the courage—or political necessity—to act.
And if they do, it will be up to Mike Johnson to decide whether to open the door… or lock it shut.
