As the 2024 election approaches, many Republicans have seized on President Joe Biden’s age as a potential avenue for victory. House GOP members have already scheduled hearings with Special Counsel Robert Hur, planning to highlight the report labeling Biden an “elderly man with a poor memory.” However, they may be making a crucial mistake if they believe that voters will reject Biden based on his age alone.
As a Republican strategist who has attempted to make the case for generational change against an incumbent, I can tell you that focusing on age as a primary issue rarely yields results. In fact, history shows that there is very little evidence to suggest that voters care all that much about the age of their political leaders. Time and again, politicians—despite their age—have managed to secure reelection, even when younger challengers have attacked them on that front.
Consider the last midterm elections, where voters on both sides of the aisle showed little concern for mental acuity. An 89-year-old Republican senator in Iowa was reelected, while a Democratic Senate candidate with known cognitive issues was elected in Pennsylvania. Both the current and past presidents have set age records by defeating younger opponents in both primary and general elections. The truth is that octogenarians and nonagenarians are far more likely to face death in office than to lose their reelection bid.
Why does this happen? The answer lies in voters’ priorities. A politician’s personal traits—such as age—become significant only when they are linked to real-world consequences that directly affect voters. In most cases, if voters perceive that elected leaders are advancing policies they support, they are willing to overlook personal flaws and reelect them.
The Republican attacks on Biden’s age are not novel. Candidates in the past have faced similar critiques. In 1996, President Bill Clinton successfully used Bob Dole’s age as part of a broader pitch for generational change. However, Clinton paired this strategy with a focus on his own economic achievements and framed Dole as too extreme. Biden will likely follow a similar strategy against Donald Trump in 2024.
Direct appeals for generational change, however, often fall flat, as I learned during my time working on Marco Rubio’s 2016 campaign. We argued that young, fresh candidates were better suited to tackle modern challenges, positioning Rubio as a generational change candidate. However, voters didn’t share our view, and Trump effectively weaponized Rubio’s youthful image, dubbing him “little Marco.” Even today, Nikki Haley, another young Republican contender, is finding it difficult to gain traction against an aging Trump—despite his mix-ups on the campaign trail.
Despite many candidates from Generation X eager to rise to power, voters seem to prefer the familiar faces of Baby Boomer politicians. Ronald Reagan’s 1984 quip about his opponent’s “youth and inexperience” continues to resonate with voters today.
Though conservative media delights in pointing out Biden’s occasional “senior moments,” the 77-year-old Trump has largely refrained from focusing on Biden’s age. Instead, Trump has concentrated on presenting his own grievances and issues that resonate with voters, such as immigration. Trump, despite his age, instinctively understands that attacking Biden’s memory may not be the most effective line of attack.
It’s true that some voters express concern about Biden’s age in polls, but his fitness for office will only become a significant issue under one of two scenarios. First, Republicans would need to make a convincing argument that Biden’s age is directly harming average Americans. While many voters may see Biden as a “weak leader,” his age alone is unlikely to be the sole reason for his perceived ineffectiveness. Conservatives’ claim that Biden is too old to implement his own policies is a contradiction, given their own criticisms of his policies.
The second scenario is a high-profile, unscripted moment in which Biden’s age visibly impacts his ability to fulfill his duties as president. This is the scenario Biden’s staff is working hard to avoid—shielding him from unscripted moments that could damage his public image. A major slip-up could certainly raise doubts among voters about his capacity to serve, but Republicans are not in control of their destiny if they are relying on such a moment.
The 2024 election will present voters with stark choices on issues that impact them directly: tax rates, foreign policy, immigration, and abortion. Ultimately, voters will choose the candidate whose views best align with their own—regardless of age. Focusing on Biden’s age may not only fail to sway voters, it may allow them to overlook more substantive matters that shape their lives.
