Senate Republicans are abuzz with discussions about elevating Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to chair the Senate Intelligence Committee—a prestigious position that would reward the Texan after his loss in last month’s GOP leadership race. However, one significant hurdle looms: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), next in line for the role, has made it clear he intends to claim the gavel.
The situation underscores the lingering tensions from the internal Republican power struggle between Cornyn and Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) for Senate GOP whip. A select committee chairmanship like Intelligence requires approval from the Senate majority leader, a decision now firmly in Thune’s hands. According to multiple Senate Republicans, Cotton’s support for Thune in the leadership contest is likely to seal the deal in his favor.
“Senator Thune has told Senator Cotton he’s taking over as chair,” said Cotton spokeswoman Caroline Tabler on Tuesday night. Cotton, she added, is already hiring staff, coordinating with outgoing chair Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and preparing for January’s confirmation hearings alongside Senate Intelligence Vice Chair Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.).
Cornyn’s office declined to comment, but insiders say the 72-year-old senator approached Cotton last month after losing the whip race to gauge his openness to yielding the chairmanship. Cotton reportedly replied, “I’m going to be the chairman.”
The Stakes for Cornyn
Cornyn, a fixture in the Senate since 2002, has long played a central role in Republican politics, serving as Senate GOP whip and chairing the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Yet despite his seniority, he has never chaired a committee. Securing the Intelligence chairmanship would offer him not only prestige but also a platform for legislative influence as tensions mount over global security and domestic intelligence issues.
However, Cotton’s ambitions—and the political calculus in Thune’s camp—make that outcome increasingly unlikely. A rising star in the GOP, Cotton, 47, boasts a résumé that includes military service and hawkish foreign policy credentials. His ascent to Intelligence chair would burnish his national security portfolio, keeping him in the spotlight as a potential future presidential contender.
Some GOP officials had hoped Cotton would be satisfied with his recent election as Senate GOP conference chair, the party’s third-ranking leadership position. Yet Cotton appears unwilling to relinquish a gavel he has effectively been preparing for since joining the committee in 2015.
A History of Defeat
Cornyn’s loss to Thune in the whip race marked a bitter end to a campaign the Texan had been quietly planning for years. The 29-24 vote, conducted by secret ballot, left Cornyn lamenting the uncertainties of intra-party politics. Reflecting on his narrow defeat, he quipped, “27 thank-you notes for 24 votes.”
Cornyn’s colleagues speculate that his decision to run for reelection in 2026 could hinge on whether he secures a prominent role in the interim. If Cotton claims the Intelligence chair, Cornyn will have to wait until 2027 to ascend to another coveted position: chair of the Senate Finance Committee.
Adding to Cornyn’s challenges is the specter of a potential primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who remains a favorite of former President Donald Trump. Paxton’s political star has risen despite federal corruption investigations and a narrowly avoided impeachment conviction, with Trump’s renewed control of the Department of Justice likely shielding him from further legal peril.
Cotton’s Calculations
For Cotton, the Intelligence chairmanship represents more than a prestigious post—it cements his reputation as a national security hawk and positions him for broader leadership opportunities. Already known for his sharp elbows in GOP circles, Cotton’s refusal to step aside highlights the fierce competition for influence within the Republican Party’s upper echelons.
A close ally of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Cotton has also cultivated strong ties with conservative grassroots activists, further solidifying his standing as a power player. Meanwhile, Cornyn, once a protégé of George W. Bush and Karl Rove, has struggled to align himself with the Trump-era GOP’s populist turn.
Looking Ahead
Cornyn insists he will run for reelection in 2026, signaling his intention to fend off any challengers, including Paxton. “Hard to run from prison, Ken,” Cornyn memorably quipped last year when asked about the Texas attorney general’s political ambitions.
Yet Cornyn’s path forward remains uncertain. Without the Intelligence chairmanship, he risks losing clout at a time when his influence could help stave off a formidable primary challenge. Cotton, meanwhile, appears poised to consolidate his power, leveraging his leadership post and committee chairmanship to shape the GOP’s direction on national security issues.
As the GOP grapples with its post-Trump identity, the drama over the Intelligence chairmanship offers a glimpse into the fierce jockeying for power within its ranks. For Cornyn and Cotton, the stakes couldn’t be higher—and the outcome may reverberate far beyond Capitol Hill.
